Jimmy Fallon Replacing Conan O'Brien is like David Archuleta Replacing David Ortiz

Good God, is this real?

This can't be real. Jimmy Fallon? Jimmy Fallon is going to be on television five nights a week? Whatever, NBC is digging its own grave.

I'm still not convinced Leno is going anywhere, and that's good news for Conan. Make the switch the CBS, big buddy, and keep it going down Sox Fan In New York style. I guess Leno counts as a Sox fan, so then we'd have both 11:30 shows. But I'd rather not count Leno.

On the bright side, at least Fallon will give "Douchebag Yankees fans who played Red Sox fans horribly in a movie" a worse name.

(Yes, the title is an American Idol reference.)

Red Sox batting stances

Via Deadspin. Youk taking a third strike is special.

Reminds us of this fellow, who assembled a more diverse cast of characters. The commentary, the office setting and the fact that he's doing it with a golf club add a nice flourish. His Boggs belongs in a museum.

We watch the Masters and we ramble

J.D. Drew is batting .429 and David Ortiz is batting .070. The Orioles are in first place in the East and the Tigers are in last place in the Central. Gabe Kapler has four home runs and Prince Fielder has zero. Kyle Lohse is 2-0 and Justin Verlander is 0-2. Down is up and up is down. And yet, was there ever any doubt that Papbelbon would enter yesterday's game after a two-hour rain delay and K A-Rod on three pitches?



I had little interest in the curse of the buried shirt nonsense until this:
Steinbrener: "I hope his coworkers kick the shit out of him."
Castignoli: "Tell Hank he can come meet me if he wants to try - and tell him to bring Posada, because he's the one Yankee I can't stand."

Castignoli and Paps vs. Steinbrener and Posada. Pay-per-view! Let's make it happen. For charity, of course.

Meanwhile, back on the field, Phil Hughes and Dice-K face off in the rubber game this evening. In four starts against the Yanks last season, Dice-K was 2-1 with a 6.12 ERA. He walked 13 batters, hit two, surrendered 23 hits, and struck out 13 in 25 innings of work. Not too pretty, but we've seen hints that perhaps '08 Dice-K ain't the same guy he was in '07. Hughes has had two starts in '08, the second far better than the first. In all, 9 innings, 5 runs, 10 hits, 5 walks, 6 K's. Fun matchup. Can't wait for Joe Morgan!

Zach Hayes of Fire Brand of the American League is on board with championing Javier Lopez's extraction from the roster:

The Red Sox made two bullpen moves in the past week: designating both Kyle Snyder and Bryan Corey for assignment. I was high on Corey after an impressive call-up last season for Boston before he hit a major wall early this year, surrendering seven runs in just over four innings. While I would have departed with Javier Lopez, who does absolutely nothing well (do you trust him to ever retire a right-handed or left-handed hitter? Of course not. He’ll give up a hit or walk the guy), I can understand the Corey dump. Snyder’s departure was long overdue. The back end of the Red Sox bullpen is pretty weak, overall. Lopez and Tavarez are well below average, Timlin will remain effective but you never know when he’ll reach the end, and Aardsma has control issues.

Did you know Don Baylor, who blasted 31 home runs for the '86 Sox, had 52 stolen bases for the A's in 1976? I had no idea. Even more remarkable, the A's had three players with more than 50 stolen bases that year (Bill North with 74 and Bert Campaneris with 54 ). To put that in perspective, in the history of the franchise the Red Sox have had two players steal 50 bases in a season. In 1973, Tommy Harper swiped 54 and then we've got to go all the way back to 1912 when Tris Speaker stole 52 bags. Otis Nixon (42) is the only other Sox player to steal more than 40 in a season.

That had not occurred to us, Dude

Stumbled across this at the Herald:

David Ortiz before and after the heart palpitations:

Before heart palpitations: 665 AB’s/68 HR = 1 every 9.78 AB’s
After heart palpitations: 658 AB’s/43 HR = 1 every 15.3 AB’s

As far as we know, the torn meniscus in his right knee that plagued Papi for all of last season was unrelated to the heart palpitations. And while we are not doctors, we feel safe in concluding that the the bum shoulder and strained quadriceps that nagged him throughout '07 were not caused by the palpitations. His .083 average in 2008? Now that's clearly the work of the palpitations.

How It's Made: Anatomy of a Papi HR

I like a Discover Channel show called How It's Made. It shows how things are made. Since they don't often do episodes on the Red Sox, here's how a David Ortiz home run comes into our lives.

We start with Genesis:

In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth.
And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.
And God said, Let there be Papi: and there was Papi.
And God saw the Papi, that it was good: and God divided the Papi from the darkness.

With Papi in the picture, we move far forward in time, to the 1970s or 1980s, when two people (most likely in America, Latin America, or Asia) fall deeply in love and have a baby boy. The boy will grow up to be a pitcher. Examples of pitchers include Johan Santana and Josh Fogg.

Our next stop is the forest, where we will need to find a tree with which to make a bat, to redirect the baseball into the stands. We find our ash tree on the top of a hill and cut it down, forging it into a bat shape using a common woodworking tools and sandpaper. We will also burn the name "David Ortiz" into the bat to ensure it is the one used in a home run.

Finally, we will need a baseball. For this, we will need a rubber ball and a machine to bind it tightly with white yarn. When this is done, we will need a cow to be eliminated, and its sweet hide wrapped around the taut ball. We will use the remainder of the cow to create a glove for the pitcher.

Once you have the necessary materials, all you need is a professional major league baseball park, of which there are 30 in North America. Locate the pitcher's mound, have the pitcher throw the ball, and this will be the result:

2008 Preview: God

Name: David Americo Ortiz
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Age: 32, but irrelevant
2008 Salary: Not enough
Fun Fact: Is the greatest baseball player ever.

I own several years' worth of Baseball Prospectus books. Let's take a look into the past and get a sneak peak at part of David Ortiz' 2000 entry:

The organization's litmus test to see if they want to get better in a hurry or just do things their way. Ortiz is accused of having an attitude, and he catches flak for bad glovework and his weight. Ullger says he's gotten into bad habits at the plate: he had been pitched outside for so long that he wasn't adjusting to anything inside in the majors, diving across the plate without keeping his head or hands still.

I just got this year's book, and the Ortiz entry reads, in it entirety:

Do not taunt this man. You will die.

Of course you will. The mere suggestion that David Ortiz is anything other than a primordial God, borne of all the powers of the universe is, frankly, insulting. And dangerous. He sees all and hears all.

So do not pitch him inside. Or outside. Or over the plate. It does not matter. 209 Red Sox home runs, 143 game-winning hits, 10 million people met and hugged, at least two World Series titles (Who knows? There could have been more we weren't aware of), one David Ortiz.

As we head into another year of Papi-fueled domination, let us say a prayer for all the opposing pitchers and baseballs that will be disposed between now and November. (Message!)

Hit 'em up, Papi.


Faloomp! Like wow.

David Ortiz' 2008 PECOTA projection:
.282 AVG/.402 OBP/.541 SLG
109 Runs
158 Hits
38 Doubles
600 Home Runs
119 RBI
111 BB
79 K
Okay, 35 Home Runs
And the Prospectus thing does not say that.

2008 Preview: First Basemen

Name: Kevin Edmund Youkilis
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 28
2008 salary: $3M
Fun Fact: Wikipedia says, "Youkilis had one line in the 1994 romantic comedy Milk Money" which was shot in Cincinnati and starred Melanie Griffith as a hooker with a heart of gold."

In his second season as the Red Sox full-time first baseman, Kevin Youkilis earned a World Series ring, a Gold Glove*, and the distinction of having the most potent sweat glands in Boston since Hall of Fame shoo-in Patrick Ewing was soaking the floorboards at Cambridge Rindge and Latin. Perhaps it is those overactive sweat glands that are to blame for Youk's severe post-all star break drop-off. His average dipped from .328 in the first half to .238 in the second half and his OPS fell from .921 to .747. While his drop in home runs and RBI was not nearly so pronounced, Youk's strike outs shot up from 40 in 293 ABs in the first half of the season to 65 in 235 ABs in the second half. Recognizing that he wore down in the dog days of summer, this off season Youkilis joined fellow Red Sox Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez and Kyle Snyder at Athletes Performance, a state-of-the-art training facility in Arizona. He arrives at spring training a very bad man, and $3 million richer.

Youkilis offers versatility in the field. He's able to spell Mike Lowell at third base and can play a bit of left field in a pinch. As made famous in Moneyball, he is a master of working the count and drawing walks. His approach at the plate seems to have gotten under the skin of the Yankees, who dislike him and have made a practice of throwing baseballs aimed at his body. And sometimes his head. Frankly, I can see why he might rub the opposition the wrong way. Something in the way he carries himself. I suppose in this respect (and I mean this in the kindest way possible) he's the Red Sox version of Jorge Posada. The Yankee hate makes my appreciation for him all the more resolute.

*Youkilis was the Gold Glove winner on the strength of an absurd errorless games streak. I know I'm partial to unnecessary theatrics when I say that I consider his two finest moments in the field to be his flawless handlings of Julian Tavarez's lawn bowling escapade.

Kevin Youkilis's 2008 ZiPS projection:
.286 AVG/.388 OBP/.444 SLG
79 Runs
136 Hits
35 Doubles
12 Home Runs
69 RBI
71 BB
100 K

Name: Sean Thomas Casey
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Age: 33
2008 salary: $700,000
Fun Fact: Sean Casey is the Mayor of Casterbridge.

Sean Casey is destined to be a fan favorite. White, slow, affable, and rarely utilized are a killer combo. There's a reason he brings with him a moniker like "The Mayor." As long as we're on the subject of his nickname, I'd like to state that we need a NESN ad featuring Casey and Tom Menino and we need it now.*

In a former life Casey was a three-time all star with the Reds who had enough pop to get more than twenty balls out of the yard in multiple seasons but he is now on his last legs. And frankly, how could he run fast anyway when he's got babies to kiss and old ladies to hug? A career .301 hitter... with a career .366 OBP, last season Casey slugged a timid .393. A nice pinch hit option if you're hoping for a single, Casey is a a left handed batter who has hit .326 against left handed pitching over the past three seasons. While certainly a better fielding first baseman than Eric Hinske, and a more reliable hitter, the Sox do lose some versatility on their bench by replacing a man who can play multiple positions with a aged first baseman. Casey says it is a dream to play for the Sox and there's no doubt he'll bring a great attitude and be well liked in the clubhouse. Welcome to Boston, Sean Casey.

*I don't have NESN on my cable package, please tell me such an ad already exists.

Sean Casey's 2008 ZiPS projection:
.283 AVG/.346 OBP/.388 SLG
46 Runs
116 Hits
25 Doubles
6 Home Runs
55 RBI
34 BB
48 K

Other first base options:
Carlos Peña: That's his name, right? That local kid who the Sox picked up off waivers a couple of years back. He's still somewhere in the system, right? Was it Portland last year? Anyway, I always liked him. Nice stroke from the left side.

Carlos Quintana: Laugh if you must, but Carlos is now fully recovered from the automobile accident that had him on the shelf for, oh, 14 seasons. He's back and in the best shape of his life. Why, just last week he won the WBO welterweight crown.

David Ortiz: A solid option at first base during World Series play.

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