Praise and the opposite of praise

Sometimes it seems like we're endlessly piling criticism on Julio Lugo and heaping praise on Kevin Youkilis. So here's this: Julio Lugo has a higher OBP, more doubles, more walks and the same number of home runs as Derek Jeter. THE Derek Jeter! Also, Julio Lugo did not have any errors last night. And then there's Youk, who operates a rather pathetic blog. Shameful. Also, he hasn't had any errors in, what, 230 consecutive games. A little excessive, don't you think? And what's with that golden glove of his? Does he think he's better than everyone else? What say we divert the monies going to the Filipino boy and put them toward the "Julio Lugo Platinum Glove Fund"? Lord knows he deserves it.

Anyway, Youk is is no doubt displeased to be moving his act to the Metrodome where he has posted .269/.321/.346, 7 hits, 0 home runs, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 1 walk in 28 plate appearance. Youk's career numbers in 59 plate appearances at Detroit's Comerica Park are very reminiscent of Julio Lugo in his prime (June '06): .327/.424/.857, 16 hits, 8 home runs, 15 runs, 17 RBI, 7 walks.

Speaking of the four game set with the Twins, here's something terrible. This atrocity might deserve a post all its own. A ten worst franchises in sports list that includes the Minnesota Twins but not the Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals or Baltimore Orioles. It is most unfortunate. He characterizes Moneyball thusly, "it's a creative way of saying, 'we're not going to pay for our stars or reward our veterans who have earned their keep,'" and then proceeds to dumbly and lazily slam the Twins for being cheap while failing to acknowledge that they have managed to stay competitive (they're currently in first place) while others working under similar financial constraints have been, well, not competitive. Why is it the Texas Rangers so often seem to avoid getting put on lists like this? They've never won a playoff series in the history of their franchise. Never! And they're located in the fifth biggest television market in the nation, so the unfortunate realities of baseball in the 21st century are not as threatening to them as they are for others.

Speaking of terrible things, here's this from the Washington Times. A list of five reasons to get over the Caps and Wizards losing. I discovered it when I was checking in on our pal Wilfredo, as I am want to do. Here it is:

1. You can now tune in to watch Wily Mo Pena hit all those home runs.

2. Under D.C. United's new deal with Volkswagen, all concession stands at RFK will sell only German beers.

3. More time to spend with your wife and kids outdoors. Ha!

4. You can go back to not caring all that much about hockey.

5. Three full months to study up on track and field, archery and handball before the Summer Olympics.

Oh mercy, that's hilarious. And quite edgy for a newspaper, don't you think? But seriously, doesn't that guy know that having fun at Wily Mo's expense is under my purview. Honestly, it's probably the worst five reasons for anything ever. It's as though the editors of the Washington Times were burning the late night oil, looking for the next big thing in online newspapering when suddenly the real hip one with his ear to the blogosphere said, "I've got it! What if we get the guy who does Marmaduke to riff on sports!" If this guy and the ten worst franchises guy joined forces Me and Pedro would be out of business faster than you can say, "Just because they're paid to write about sports does not mean you should reasonably expect them to watch sports."

Steals, Wins and Wang

We get the sense that we're constantly being attacked by our co-worker here at Me and Pedro; that's okay, because we are. The other side refuses to admit such a beef, perhaps hardened by years of enduring barking-mad baseball rants from recently Sabermetrically-indoctrinated people such as myself, which we understand (we also hate the word "Sabermetrics" and any of its variants). For instance, in our last post, Ben writes:

I've been chided in the past for my fixation with the stolen base. But look here, thirty stolen base attempts for this Sox this season and only FOUR times have they been caught. Surely that kind of efficiency makes even the most hardened stolen base skeptics excited about the team's base running.

Let me parse this paragraph for you, Fire Joe Morgan-style:

I've been chided in the past for my fixation with the stolen base.

By Bryan.

But look here, thirty stolen base attempts for this Sox this season and only FOUR times have they been caught.

"Only four times have they been caught... asshole."

Surely that kind of efficiency makes even the most hardened stolen base skeptics

— and by that, Bryan, I mean YOU, on your couch in Queens —

excited about the team's base running.

"... asshole."

While I think Ben would be surprised by the amount that I've come around to many non-sabermetrically endorsed ideas, he's right: those type of numbers would make even the most hardened stolen base skeptics cock their eyebrow in interest. Quite simply, the Sox — led by (never-shhh) Ellsbury — steal bases very well. For any Sox fan familiar with the history of the team long or short, this is astonishing. The Sox have never been a base-stealing team. In their 107-year history, a Red Sock has led the league in steals a whopping six times, or the same number as Vince Coleman in the 80s (and five less than Rickey). I couldn't find team steals stats, but they'd be about the same. The last time a Sock won the steals title was in 1973, when Tommie Harper did it. So yes, this is rare. And yes, it's a lovely change of pace, especially when they never get caught.

For those of you who don't know why I was "shhh"-ing the boy wonder Jacoby's name above, it's because he's converted his first 20 SB attempts going back to last season, seven shy of the record held by Tim Raines to start a career. I think Ben is absolutely right when he says stolen bases are not entirely about speed, and that's what makes Ellsbury's achievement so impressive. While the kid's got speed to burn, he knows what to do with it at a young age. Contrast him with someone else who's got ridiculous speed like Jose Reyes and you see how impressive this is. Reyes is a valuable base stealer, and led the league with 78 swipes last year; he also was caught 21 times, which also led the league. The best base stealer on the Mets is Carlos Beltran, who swiped 25 bags and was caught three times. In fact, Beltran has the highest stolen base percentage in major league history, if I remember correctly, with players who have 250 or more steals (whatever his rank, it's 87.8%). The Sox' best base stealer is their fastest player. That's straight fire right there.

Also straight fire right now, as Ben said, is Kevin Youkilis, who's tearing sh*t up right now. To recap as of this morning:

Ranks 9th in AL in RBI
Ranks 8th in AL in Runs
Ranks 8th in AL in Walks
Ranks 7th in AL in OBP
Ranks 8th in AL in SLG
Ranks 6th in AL in OPS

Not that there's anything wrong with it, but Youkilis is a notorious hot starter/slow finisher (Hey, the games count the same in April and September!) To wit, here are his splits as a full-time starter:

2006
Pre All-Star: .297/.406./.467
Post All-Star: .257/.347/.381

2007
Pre All-Star: .328/.419/.502
Post All-Star: .238/.356/.391

This year, he's right in line with the early-season stats at .305/.397/.517. But the pattern is there and will probably repeat itself: dude is just better early on, for whatever reason. Contrast that with another Me and Pedro favorite, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis, who starts slow each year but rakes when the Mercury tops 90:

2006
Pre All-Star: .268/.335/.348
Post All-Star: .311/.364/.531

2007
Pre All-Star: .279/.340/.431
Post All-Star: .325/.389/.550

This year, he's at .263/.391/.456, having cooled down after an early hot streak. So what is it that causes these streaks? Youkilis is a bigger guy than Markakis, waistwise, and you'd have to figure there's an element of Youkilis wearing down as the year goes on and Markakis playing into shape. But there's got to be more to it than that, something that makes Markakis see the ball better in July and August and Youkilis to start hitting like Craig Counsell. The mind wonders what it could be. Summer television? Maryland crab?

--

There were some points I promised to touch on today, so I'll cover them now. The first was last night's Sox/Tigers game, which is only notable for the hocus-pocus Dice-K used to walk eight batters and still pick up a "W." We've been thinking a lot about the concept of a "win" recently, as it's been all but dismissed by the statistical community, but I think it still has some value. Certainly, wins and losses alone won't tell you very much about a pitcher, except a pitcher with 20 wins is unlikely to be terrible and a pitcher with 20 losses is unlikely to be Josh Beckett. But there's something about the W, when not haphazardly applied — as in, to a closer who blows the game to see his team rally for "him" — that's has an integrity we like. We recently saw Chien-Ming (F'ing) Wang beat C.C. Sabathia in a 1-0 twin masterpiece, which is about as tough an "L" the hefty lefty could earn. That's also about as tough a win as a pitcher can get, and if someone ever deserves one, it's Wang in that situation. And all Wang does is win. He doesn't have the best numbers of all the pitchers in the league, but the guy is on the mound when the Yankees win. That may be, as stat guys may argue, a matter of circumstances — circumstances like Wang being consistently good on a high-scoring team — but we only watch baseball for the circumstances that do happen. The win-loss system, as imperfect as it is, is something we smile when we're considering.

I think I've said enough for today without getting too in-depth into Bronson Arroyo and Hideki Okajima. The former Sock is getting roughed up in Cincy, and Okie keeps on rolling through smoke and mirrors, or so it seems. We still love that Gary Sheffield said that Okajima was the toughest lefty he had ever faced. Gary Sheffield said that. Gary Sheffield is going to the Hall of Fame. And Okie owns him.

God, I love baseball.

Red Sox batting stances

Via Deadspin. Youk taking a third strike is special.

Reminds us of this fellow, who assembled a more diverse cast of characters. The commentary, the office setting and the fact that he's doing it with a golf club add a nice flourish. His Boggs belongs in a museum.

2008 Preview: Third Basemen

Name: Michael Averett Lowell
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 34
2008 Salary: $12.5M
Fun Fact: Mike Lowell shares his middle name with a small university in Virginia whose affiliation with the Baptist church ended following a disagreement over a student group's gay pride event. Don't worry, Mike Lowell is totally not a Baptist. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

A year ago at this time Sox fans were still debating the wisdom of a proposed Todd Helton for Mike Lowell swap. Some welcomed the trade, citing Lowell’s woeful 2005 (.236/.298/.360) and his struggles in the second half of 2006 (.257/.315/.424). Others were keen on retaining Lowell, citing his defensive prowess and Helton’s own, albeit less severe, decline. As it turns out the 34-year-old third baseman had a career year in 2007, setting personal bests in hits (191), RBI (120), batting average (.324), and on-base percentage (.378).

Late last season it became trendy to say that Mike Lowell was the Sox MVP. That was misguided and a clear indication that we took Big Papi and his 1.066 OPS largely for granted. My minor quibble aside, there is no denying that there were stretches last season, particularly in the early going, when Mike Lowell seemed to be driving in every crucial Sox run. Add to that the World Series MVP and I think Sox fans are quite content to have Lowell in the fold for another three years.

In the early stages of Spring Training the only talk surrounding Mike Lowell seems be about his budding ping-pong rivalry with Dustin Pedroia and his thoughts concerning regime change in his ancestral homeland.

Mike Lowell's 2008 ZiPS projection:
.272 AVG/.333 OBP/.429 SLG
70 Runs
150 Hits
40 Doubles
15 Home Runs
64 RBI
50 BB
63 K

Other third base options:
Kevin Youkilis: We discussed him here. He can play third and play it adequately. This was not a case where a guy gets sent across the diamond because he can't hack it at third—Hi, Hinske! In his career Youk has played 118 games at third and made 11 errors. Not too snaby. Oh and he blogs. Or used to blog. We'll have to wait and see.

Alex Cora: We discussed him here. Youk is obviously the first option. Cora has precious little experience at third but he can fill in on a day when both Lowell and Youkilis can't go and the results would not be disastrous.

2008 Preview: First Basemen

Name: Kevin Edmund Youkilis
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 28
2008 salary: $3M
Fun Fact: Wikipedia says, "Youkilis had one line in the 1994 romantic comedy Milk Money" which was shot in Cincinnati and starred Melanie Griffith as a hooker with a heart of gold."

In his second season as the Red Sox full-time first baseman, Kevin Youkilis earned a World Series ring, a Gold Glove*, and the distinction of having the most potent sweat glands in Boston since Hall of Fame shoo-in Patrick Ewing was soaking the floorboards at Cambridge Rindge and Latin. Perhaps it is those overactive sweat glands that are to blame for Youk's severe post-all star break drop-off. His average dipped from .328 in the first half to .238 in the second half and his OPS fell from .921 to .747. While his drop in home runs and RBI was not nearly so pronounced, Youk's strike outs shot up from 40 in 293 ABs in the first half of the season to 65 in 235 ABs in the second half. Recognizing that he wore down in the dog days of summer, this off season Youkilis joined fellow Red Sox Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez and Kyle Snyder at Athletes Performance, a state-of-the-art training facility in Arizona. He arrives at spring training a very bad man, and $3 million richer.

Youkilis offers versatility in the field. He's able to spell Mike Lowell at third base and can play a bit of left field in a pinch. As made famous in Moneyball, he is a master of working the count and drawing walks. His approach at the plate seems to have gotten under the skin of the Yankees, who dislike him and have made a practice of throwing baseballs aimed at his body. And sometimes his head. Frankly, I can see why he might rub the opposition the wrong way. Something in the way he carries himself. I suppose in this respect (and I mean this in the kindest way possible) he's the Red Sox version of Jorge Posada. The Yankee hate makes my appreciation for him all the more resolute.

*Youkilis was the Gold Glove winner on the strength of an absurd errorless games streak. I know I'm partial to unnecessary theatrics when I say that I consider his two finest moments in the field to be his flawless handlings of Julian Tavarez's lawn bowling escapade.

Kevin Youkilis's 2008 ZiPS projection:
.286 AVG/.388 OBP/.444 SLG
79 Runs
136 Hits
35 Doubles
12 Home Runs
69 RBI
71 BB
100 K

Name: Sean Thomas Casey
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Age: 33
2008 salary: $700,000
Fun Fact: Sean Casey is the Mayor of Casterbridge.

Sean Casey is destined to be a fan favorite. White, slow, affable, and rarely utilized are a killer combo. There's a reason he brings with him a moniker like "The Mayor." As long as we're on the subject of his nickname, I'd like to state that we need a NESN ad featuring Casey and Tom Menino and we need it now.*

In a former life Casey was a three-time all star with the Reds who had enough pop to get more than twenty balls out of the yard in multiple seasons but he is now on his last legs. And frankly, how could he run fast anyway when he's got babies to kiss and old ladies to hug? A career .301 hitter... with a career .366 OBP, last season Casey slugged a timid .393. A nice pinch hit option if you're hoping for a single, Casey is a a left handed batter who has hit .326 against left handed pitching over the past three seasons. While certainly a better fielding first baseman than Eric Hinske, and a more reliable hitter, the Sox do lose some versatility on their bench by replacing a man who can play multiple positions with a aged first baseman. Casey says it is a dream to play for the Sox and there's no doubt he'll bring a great attitude and be well liked in the clubhouse. Welcome to Boston, Sean Casey.

*I don't have NESN on my cable package, please tell me such an ad already exists.

Sean Casey's 2008 ZiPS projection:
.283 AVG/.346 OBP/.388 SLG
46 Runs
116 Hits
25 Doubles
6 Home Runs
55 RBI
34 BB
48 K

Other first base options:
Carlos Peña: That's his name, right? That local kid who the Sox picked up off waivers a couple of years back. He's still somewhere in the system, right? Was it Portland last year? Anyway, I always liked him. Nice stroke from the left side.

Carlos Quintana: Laugh if you must, but Carlos is now fully recovered from the automobile accident that had him on the shelf for, oh, 14 seasons. He's back and in the best shape of his life. Why, just last week he won the WBO welterweight crown.

David Ortiz: A solid option at first base during World Series play.

How Youkilis Will Spend His $3 million

Deal is done. Here's where the money is going:

• Recoup the investment loss in Slump Buster energy drink ($100,000)
• Impending Wedding ($500,000)
• Residual payments to Michael Lewis for placement in Moneyball ($200,000)
• 1 BR North End love nest ($1.1 million)
• Hitting the shit out of the ball (free)
• Donations to his foundation, now that he's out of hair ($200,000)
• Giving to Sean Casey mayoral campaign ($100,000)
• Ruling the Yankees ($138.48 for instructional 2004-07 DVD set with free Super Saver shipping)
• General owning of AL East ($500,000)
• Nancy Kerrigan-like takeout of Erik Bedard before Seattle series ($20,000)
• Bet on Pats to go undefeated next year ($181,000 at 25-1)
• Jacoby Ellsbury signed baseball ($159)
• Chips ($88,702.52)