Know Thy Enemy: Baltimore Orioles

It's never too late to jump back into our season previews. OK, perhaps the All-Star break would be pushing it, but for now we venture on. Today we look at a team that nearly every human projects to finish last in the American League East. Buoyed by a hot start to the 2008 season, Jon Fletcher gives his take on the Baltimore Orioles.

Lawyer jokes were created for Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Ten years too late, he has decided its time to blow up the O’s and rebuild. It seems the Birds finally have themselves a competent GM in Andy McPhail, as he got a quite a haul of young talent in dealing both fan favorites Bedard and Tejada in the off-season. Brian Roberts will likely be dealt before the all-star break if Petey doesn’t block a deal as he has often been known to do. The Orioles would love to finish 4th in the AL East again this year even though they have ended up there 8 of the last 9 years. That said odds are this is a 100 loss team. If there is a bright spot it’s that there is finally some young talent to look forward to in years to come. And fans still have the Crab Shuffle and Boog’s Bar-B-Q to distract them from the on the field product, in what still remains as one of the best stadiums in MLB, Camden Yards. O’s skipper Dave Trembley plans to use more situational hitting this year As of this writing the Birds are currently the best team in baseball at 6-1, and I had to put that in ink considering it probably won’t be said again as long as Angelos is alive. Let the Natty Boh flow, and ain’t the Beer cold!

The Lineup
Brian Roberts 2B
Melvin Mora 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Kevin Millar 1B
Ramon Hernandez C
Aubrey Huff DH
Luke Scott/Jay Payton LF
Adam Jones CF
Luis Hernandez SS

Millar keeps telling the media that this is a World Series team. Kevin has a wonderful sense of humor as Sawks fans know. Scott and Jones should post respectable numbers even though expectations are tempered. Millar in the clean up spot has worked out thus far (7 games in). Orioles’ fans dream of the future of a Markakis, Jones, and prospect Nolan Reimold OF. With any luck Reimold will possess what Jay Gibbons didn’t, a consistent power bat with good plate discipline. Scott Moore had an impressive spring and should see some playing time at 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base. Huff needs to improve drastically from last year.

The Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie
Daniel Cabrera
Steve Trachsel
Adam Loewen
Brian Burres

Along with the Nats, Rangers and Royals this is probably the worst rotation in the bigs. O’s fans gotta keep believin’ that this will be the year that Cabrera will gain control of his filthy stuff. One can dare to dream. Loewen has yet to show much improvement and I would still call him a project. Jeremy Guthrie the Indians throw away is the ace of this staff. I cringed wiring that.

The Pen
Randor Bierd
Matt Albers
Dennis Safarte
Chad Bradford
Jamie Walker
Greg Aquino
George Sherrill

The lefty Sherrill brought over from the M’s in the Bedard trade has never closed before. He will be given a long leash but if he falters look for Aquino to step into that role. Bradford (R) and Walker (L) are the pens top setup men. Safarte who came over in the Tejada deal, has control issues but looks to be the long reliever. The coaching staff is high on Albers who throws gas in the upper 90’s. The bullpen thus far has been the strength of the team and looks much improved over last season. Fatigue could be an issue as the starters will seldom go deep into games.

Jon Fletcher fondly recalls the days of Chuck Thompson, EBW, and the 1983 World Series champs. As a youngin’ he fondly remembers hearing Phils LF Gary Mathews being called words he never heard before in the bleachers of Memorial Stadium. He currently coaches his nephew’s machine pitch Astros squad but refuses to wear the cap still protesting the 1991 deal for Glenn Davis.

Know Thy Enemy: Colorado Rockies

Today in Know Thy Enemy we wrap up the NL West previews with a look at the 2007 World Series runner-up Colorado Rockies. Do the Rox have what it takes to make another magical run? Drew Bienhoff of Up in the Rockies discusses the defending National League champs.

Ah yes, the very welcome burden of heightened expectations. After going six straight seasons under .500, the Rockies shocked the National League in 2007 by overcoming an 18-27 start and taking both the Wild Card and eventually the pennant in stunning fashion.

Of course, any time a team goes on a streak like the Rox had in September and October when they won 21 of 22 games, they’re going to be expected to do big things the following season. Although their sights are set on the franchise’s first division crown, Colorado knows it won’t be easy. It’s going to be a battle all year long in the National League West with four legitimate contenders (sorry, San Francisco) beating each other up in intradivisional play.

Despite the fact that the Rockies didn’t make any impact additions over the offseason, choosing instead to focus on locking up the core of this National League champion squad with several long term extensions, they’re looking better than ever headed into 2008. With a lineup that boasts maybe the best two through six hitters in the National League and a rotation that is expected to get full seasons for the first time out of its top two young power arms, no one is going to enjoy facing these Rockies in 2008.

Projected Lineup
CF Willy Taveras
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Todd Helton
LF Matt Holliday
3B Garrett Atkins
RF Brad Hawpe
C Yorvit Torrealba
2B Jayson Nix

Nix is the only new face in the lineup, having inherited the job vacated by Kazuo Matsui’s departure for Houston. Losing Kaz’s speed at the top of the lineup will be tough to deal without, but his bat is far from irreplaceable. Don’t be surprised if Nix performs better than the seemingly low expectations that have been placed on him.

If Taveras can stay healthy and be fleet of foot as usual while Torrealba and Nix are at least average to slightly above average, this is one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. They’ll need to be, as the Rockies starting rotation has the usual question marks toward the back end:

Projected Rotation
Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Ubaldo Jimenez
Mark Redman
Franklin Morales

Much will be riding on the young arms of Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales this year. After encouraging debuts towards the end of 2007, these two have been handed crucial roles in the return of this team to the postseason. If they can both stay healthy and effective, it will be a huge boost for the Rockies (not to mention a speed boost on the radar gun). If they don’t, it will mean Kip Wells and Josh Towers may see some starts throughout the season…yikes.

The bullpen and bench were solid yet unspectacular in 2007, so expect more of the same in this new season as the personnel remains pretty close to the same. Scott Podsednik will try to make an impact as a fifth outfielder, but I don’t see his addition panning out to have much value, as his legs have seen their best days go by.

All in all, the Rockies are facing some stiff competition in the West this year, but they’re more than prepared to rise to the challenge. As usual, the traditional problem of hitting consistently well away from Coors Field stands in the way of greatness, but this offense has the talent to hit anywhere, a mile high or not. Look for the Rockies to follow up their first playoff appearance in 12 years with a second one in 2008.

Drew is a displaced Rockies fan (living in Kansas City) who is glad that he no longer hears the question, "Why are you a Rockies fan? They suck!" He currently writes at Up in the Rockies and is probably still the biggest Larry Walker supporter west of the Mississippi.

Know Thy Enemy: Cleveland Indians

As pretty much everyone's season starts today, we take a trip over to Cleveland courtesy of our good friend Cleveland Frowns.

If we know more about the teams that our respective beloved squads vanquish or are vanquished by, we can better lend meaning to these ballgames that we follow so closely. So I, a dyed-in-the-wool Tribe fan whose first big league autograph was from Ernie Camacho at old Cleveland Municipal Stadium, will do my best to explain what the Indians mean to Indians fans, in view of our team's "relationship" with the Boston Red Sox. Two aspects of this relationship come immediately and primarily to mind. First, we surely don't differ much with fans of most other big league teams in harboring the sentiment that our team, in a very real sense, isn't playing the same game that the Red Sox are playing. Second, quite aside from the fact that the Indians and Red Sox play a different game, and quite differently from nearly every other ball club that the Red Sox will play, the two teams are playing for a vastly different prize.

We'll start with the second difference first – the way in which no Boston-bred Sox fan can relate to a Cleveland-bred Tribe fan. Our relationship with our team must be viewed in the context of the City of Cleveland's 46 year championship drought. This is very different from the Red Sox' championship drought that ended in 2004.

I don't mean to minimize the meaning of the 2004 Series to Sox fans or Boston-at-large. I know there are fans who would have traded all the Celts, Bruins, and Patriots championships for one Red Sox World Series win - and here the Boston and Cleveland fan bases differ in another important respect. It might well be that the Sox occupy the top spot in the hearts of the average Boston sports fan. That's certainly not the case here in Browns Town. But the fact still remains.

A region's civic pride is intimately related to the success of its sports teams, and while it certainly must have been painful for Red Sox fans to experience what they did, at least they never had to wonder if their team played in a "city of losers." So forgive us for saying that the "Now I can die in peace" exhortations that followed the 2004 Series struck us as a bit overindulgent. The Indians success in the 90's and early 2000's, although it did not include a championship victory, meant that a generation (or three) of Clevelanders grew up feeling at least a little bit better about their city, all else held equal. We can't measure how this influences folks' decision to leave, maintain ties with, or settle down in the area, but we know that it must, on the margins, have some effect. A championship for any of Cleveland's three major pro teams would have the same effect, on a far more significant level. This is important. So, understand that when we play, we're not playing for the same thing in a large respect.

You already know that we're not playing the same game. We could only laugh when Bill Simmons referred to J.D. Drew's grand slam in game 5 of the 2007 ALCS as a "karmic miracle." Simmons said that "some day, we'll be able to place (the Drew homer) in proper perspective. Just not today." ?!?!?!?!? The Sox have a payroll nearly three times the size of the Indians' ($143M to $62M) and were still relatively fresh off the 2004 Series win that might be the most publicized major sports championship in recent history, yet they needed a "karmic miracle" to beat one of those most cursed franchises from perhaps the most cursed city in all of American sport? How long will it take for us to put this in perspective? How long will it take for us to understand the importance of a home run hit by one of the most embarrassingly overpriced free agents in baseball history off of a pitcher throwing at a strike zone resembling the eye of a needle (that strike zone being the subject of another piece)? How long??? Are we there yet?

Relatedly, Manny Ramirez's success for the Red Sox against the Tribe serves as a painful reminder of the price of success in Cleveland -- the revolving door through which our best and most beloved players leave -- from Belle, to Manny, to Thome. Even Bartolo and Sexson. CC and Sizemore are surely next. All homegrown talent, and as a whole far superior to anything that's come up through the Red Sox system in the same timeframe. We don't mean to piss in anyone's punch bowl by pointing this out, and we don't fault the Red Sox or their fans for it given the current rules of the game, but when the Red Sox beat us, we can't help but feel like we feel when we lose in pick-up hoops to the guy who insists on stacking his team. Sadly, it's easy to shrug off. Perhaps you Sox fans like it this way. It certainly sets things up for more Red Sox/Yankees drama. But we can't help but wonder if that drama will soon wear as thinly for you as it has for most of the rest of us. We can't help but wonder if a salary cap would make this all more fun for everyone, even you Sox fans (see, generally, the NFL).

Of course, we know that money isn't everything, even in baseball. The Red Sox, Yankees, and especially the Mets have proven this over recent years, as well as the various successes of smaller market teams like the Indians and Rockies, to name a pair of examples. In this way, we can appreciate our team and front office in a way that Patriots fans (but no Sox fan) might appreciate theirs. Tribe GM Mark Shapiro has done a remarkable job signing a core of the Indians' best young talent to long term deals, ensuring that Travis Hafner (signed through 2013), Grady Sizemore (2012), Victor Martinez (2010), Jhonny Peralta (2011) will wear Tribe uniforms for at least the next three seasons, along with younger talent Fausto Carmona (2012), Ryan Garko (2012), and Rafael Perez (2013). For the next few years, this group will give us a good chance to be playing in October, which is an awfully nice time of year in Cleveland even without playoff baseball. And the chance to knock off the big boys makes it that much more exciting for us. Last year we were this close.

Which brings us to our final point, which is why, despite our love for our team and our town, we can't fully put our heart into pulling for the Indians. That is, our team's ridiculous and embarrassing logo, Chief Wahoo. Journalist Roy Peter Clark puts it well: "I don't think that Cleveland has to change its name (neither do we). . . . But the cartoonish caricature of a group of human beings -- signified by Chief Wahoo's red skin and big white teeth -- is the absolute equivalent of the blackface Sambo images that polluted American culture in the first half of the 20th century, and Nazi propaganda portrayals of Jews with big noses and wicked sneers." Many will argue that whatever the original intent behind the logo's creation, Wahoo has become a beloved symbol to which no Indians fan attaches any anti-Native animus. This might be right, but intent and impact are obviously two different things. Native American history is complicated enough. With alcoholism and unemployment ravaging the Native population today, the claim that a grotesque crimson red-faced (drunken?) caricature "grinning idiotically through enormous bucked teeth" honors our Native population in any way is simply incredible, especially in view of circumstances surrounding the alleged decision to adopt "Indians" as a team name and as a mascot. A fan base that doesn't demand Chief Wahoo's burial might not deserve a championship. A part of us, sadly, hopes that the curse of Chief Wahoo is real.

Of course, curse or no curse, salary cap or no salary cap, they will continue to play the games. And Indians fans and Red Sox fans alike, at least a great number of us, will enjoy them - not least because the ballpark is as good a place as any to see how the issues implicated by the match-ups can play out. Best wishes to you Sox fans, and thanks for reading. We appreciate your enthusiasm for your ballclub and hope that you'll continue to visit our town and our ballpark.

Know Thy Enemy: Cincinnati Reds

So we ain't gonna get to all 28 by Opening Day, this much is clear. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't still strive to meet our goal. And so we take an Opening Day Eve swing through the fine state of Ohio. Shawn Weaver of Cincinnati Reds Blog gives us his thoughts on his beloved Red Stockings.

A new season brings new optimism. The Cincinnati Reds look forward to the new season with hope, as do other teams. This year, however, the Reds have some good reasons for hope.

Start with the new manager, Dusty Baker. A three-time manager of the year winner, Baker brings high expectations into the job and into the dugout. Certainly a team would not hire Baker if it did not expect to field a strong team, capable of winning. Baker has a reputation as a players' manager, and a history of getting stronger performances out of players than they had reached before his tenure. These things bring great excitement.

Baker also comes with caveats. There are whispers that he let the Barry Bonds situation get out of control in San Francisco. Others say out loud that he ruined young pitchers in Chicago. One source has written of his propensity to get "84 win seasons out of 88 win talent." Baker has a checkered record with young talent, which worries fans of the prospect-laden Reds. So does his habit of leading off with players of low on-base percentage. It is not a perfect world.

The second cause for optimism is the young pitching. Two rookies, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, are in the season-opening rotation. They join holdovers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, with veteran Josh Fogg also joining. Cueto and Volquez bring live arms and excitement to the staff not seen in years. In the wings is another live arm, Homer Bailey. Things are truly looking up for Reds pitching.

That optimism extends to the bullpen, where the Reds signed a big-ticket closer, Francisco Cordero. Cordero has a strong track record, and his signing helps settle a bullpen that was a major disaster last season. With Cordero around, David Weathers, Jared Burton, Todd Coffey, and Jeremy Affeldt are expected to settle into roles that are suited for them, rather than being pushed beyond their limits. When lefty Bill Bray has settled questions about his health and joined the 'pen, the stable of arms should be formidable, especially with hard-throwing Mike Lincoln around.

The team on the field is much the same as last year, with an exception in center field. Corey Patterson joins the team. His lack of walks and propensity to strike out are worrisome points, but fans hope he is just keeping a spot warm for superprospect Jay Bruce.

Ken Griffey, Adam Dunn, and Brandon Phillips will again lead the offense. Edwin Encarnacion could improve, and Joey Votto could add more punch at first base. If Jeff Keppinger gets plenty of chances to play, he will provide a season's worth of grit and determination, as well as a .300 average at shortstop. Alex Gonzalez might get his job back, however. Catcher remains a weak spot, and the position most in need of an upgrade. If the Reds are in contention down the stretch, catching is the spot most likely to be bolstered by a trade.

The Reds look ready to break .500 by virtue of an improved pitching staff. A bit better, and they could make a strong case in the wide-open NL Central. Reds fans hope for some Dusty magic in 2008.

Shawn Weaver has been a Reds fan since 1972, the era of the Big Red Machine, and started the first Reds blog, the aptly-named Cincinnati Reds Blog, in 2002. He has been spending entirely too much time on the blog ever since, but no one can talk him out of it. He also writes the Baseball Awards Blog and the Rating the Greatest Baseball Players Blog just so he doesn't have any spare time.

Know Thy Enemy: Arizona Diamondbacks

We conclude today's trip around the the NL West with a visit to Arizona. Jim McLennan of AZ Snakepit is kind enough to take the time to give us his thoughts on the 2008 Diamondbacks.

The Arizona Diamondbacks posted the best record in the National League last season, and swept the Cubs out in the Division Series, before falling victim to their own sweep, against the Rockies in the NLCS. This was despite an offense which finished dead-last in the league for batting average, even playing in a hitter-friendly park like Chase Field, and they defied convention by winning their division, even after conceding more runs than they scored.

Perhaps surprisingly, their main off-season acquisition was another top-line pitcher, trading a number of prospects to the A's for Dan Haren, who started the 2007 All-Star Game for the American League. However, the team is relying on improvement from within - three starters (CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton and 3B Mark Reynolds) who had their first taste of the majors only last season, and the bulk of the regular offense will be 25 or younger on Opening Day. More experience should lead to better things at the plate. Keep a particular eye on Upton, who will be too young to drink until after the All-Star break, but follows the likes of Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, as a rare modern case of a 20-year old being handed a full-time job in the big leagues.

Elsewhere, the team doesn't have a prototypical "slugger"; Chris Young led the team with 32 homers, but also stole 27 bases, the first rookie to do both. However, he also struck out 141 times and needs to improve his plate discipline, with an on-base percentage below .300. The lineup should be well-balanced - nine different players reached double-figures in homers, and there could be even more this year, thanks to Upton and Chad Tracy. The latter is returning from injury, but had twenty HR in 2006; he'll split time at the corner infield positions with Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Even the pitcher's spot could prove productive: Micah Owings batted .333 with 15 RBI, including one game against Atlanta where he went 4-for-5 with two homers and six RBI.

He will, however, be #5 in the a rotation which, with the acquisition of Haren, shapes up to be one of the best in the league. It's headed by Brandon Webb, who won the 2006 Cy Young and improved his stats further last season, though finished second in balloting, behind Jake Peavy. His year included three consecutive complete-game shutouts and a 42-inning scoreless streak, thanks largely to his devastating sinker, dealing with which has been compared to trying to hit a bowling-ball. Haren did drop off somewhat in the second-half last year, but that's because of the incredible first-half. In his first 17 appearances, he was 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA - and in the two losses, he allowed zero and one earned run. Even after the break, he had 11 quality starts in 15 outings, so should keep Arizona in most games.

Behind them, of course, only sits five-time Cy Young winner Randy Johnson, though he is returning from his second bout of back surgery - a relapse of the herniated disk which led to the first operation, ended his 2007 season after only ten starts. When he pitched, he was generally very effective; he struck out more than a batter per inning, and had a K:BB ratio of 72:13, including one-hitting the Rockies for six frames at Coors. Expect Arizona to use him cautiously, but if they can get 25 starts or more from the Big Unit, they'll be happy. Doug Davis's ERA belied his outings, which seemed often to consist of a tidal wave of base-runners, stranded at third. He needs to walk less people to be truly effective, but he's been within one game of .500 every year for the last five, and that's all you need from your #4 starter. Owings, already discussed, will fill things out, and looks to improve on a disappointing spring.

The bullpen was one of the main reasons Arizona had such a good record in one-run games last year. They've lost closer Jose Valverde, who is now with the Astros, but the reliever they got back from Houston, Chad Qualls, is probably not far short of Valverde's level. Replacing him as the D-backs closer is Brandon Lyon, who is not your standard archetype for the position, possessing four decent pitches rather than an overpowering two, and with a far more phlegmatic attitude than his demonstrative predecessor. If he falters, Tony Peña will be there to take up a role he'll likely occupy full-time from 2009, as Lyon will be a free-agent. Behind those two are Qualls and Juan Cruz - the latter had a better K/9 rate than almost any pitcher in the majors last year.

The NL West is perhaps the most competitive division in baseball, with four teams who can genuinely say they have a chance of the title. The Dodgers have the resources, the Padres a 1-2 punch in Peavy and Young that's not far off Arizona's, and the Rockies will be flying the NL pennant above Denver. So it'd be a brave man who guarantees a title for the Diamondbacks. However, they are the reigning champions, and should be better this season than last, meaning it's up to the rest of the pack to overtake them. It's going to be a fun season.

Jim writes about the Diamondbacks at AZ Snakepit.

Know Thy Enemy: Los Angeles Dodgers

From San Diego we head north to Los Angeles just in time for tonight's craziness at the Coliseum. Alfred, a proud Dodgers fan and noted Red Sox hater, offers his thoughts on the Dodgers' 2008 season.

As if ESPN and SI aren't the only places where the words New York and Boston are tirelessly uttered, the experts in either stable can now twist these within the 2008 make-up of the Dodgers. Or not... With the arrival of Joe Torre and the unfortunate continuing ownership by the McCourts, the 2008 Dodgers are bestowed with pretty demanding expectations.

Joe Torre and Andruw Jones each have defined the last decade of baseball in New York and Atlanta. Bringing them together shoots a dose of optimism in Dodger fans due to the credibility, resumes, and contention they bring to Los Angeles of Los Angeles. There's also a few other core guys in this clubhouse that will keep the Dodgers in the playoff race deep into September. Russell Martin( C ), Matt Kemp(RF), James Loney(1B), and Andre Ethier(LF) will continue to blossom as outstanding players at their respective positions. Jeff Kent has been hobbled this spring, and might see himself dropped to batting 6th in the line-up. The good news is that Delwyn Young/ Tony Abreu have showed potential, if not raw talent, at the position eventually vacated by Mr. Moustache.

This year also differentiates from past years where hitting was the problem, not pitching. Aside from All-Star Brad Penny, Chad Billingsby, and new-comer Hiroki Koruda, there isn't a solidified or healthy rotation. Derek Lowe's struggled in spring training with his location. Ironically, that's something that's actually been a hallmark of his career as a Dodger. Jason Schmidt is out until June. When he returns, we still don't know what three years and 47 million have bought us aside from a shelved arm. The 5th spot in the rotation is a toss-up between Chan Ho Park, who's posted decent numbers in spring training, and Often injured righty Esteban Loaiza. The bright side is that lefty hurler Clayton Kershaw might get a few call-ups this season to polish him into the rotation. His 97 mph fastball and dropping curveball have the Dodgers rejoicing over a potential lefty ace.

PROJECTED LINE-UP
SS Rafael Furcal
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
CF Andruw Jones
RF Matt Kemp
LF Andre Ethier
2B Jeff Kent
3B Andy Laroche*

*Laroche and Garciaparra are both on the 15-day DL. Do'h. God forbid the arrival of Brandon Inge....

ROTATION
RH Brad Penny
RH Chad Billingsby
LH Hiroki Koruda
RH Derek Lowe
RH Esteban Loaiza

PEN
RH Yhency Brezoban
LH Joe Beimel
RH Jonathan Broxton
CP Takashi Saito

The logjam in Left Field between Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier is complicated by the fact that Pierre makes 11 million the next three years. Possible trade bait at mid-season if he has a hot start and is packaged witha 2nd-tier prospect to a team DESPERATE for a Center-fielder. Aside from that, Pierre's coming off the bench for Torre in late-innings.

Alfred, aka RawLA, is a Sociologist/Dee Jay/Hater/Chicano from Los Angeles that loves his beisbol. In spite of his hate for all things Boston sans Sam Adams(beer), he would like to visit someday for some authentic New England clam choooooooowdah.

Know Thy Enemy: San Diego Padres

Continuing today's whirlwind tour of (most of) the NL West, we make our way down to San Diego. Where we check in with Padres fanatic J. Neff.

The 2008 Padres are mostly the same team that played well enough a year ago to suit up for one game past number 162, but not well enough to play any more after that. Before I get into that, though, let me get into this: this is the part where I show my San Diego insecurity. Actually, never mind. I might say something paranoid later about East Coast bias, I don't know yet, but just now I came to grips with the fact that America's Finest City® is a smedium media market and that's just the way it is. With a whole hell of a lot of water on one side of the city, a whole hell of a lot sand on the other, Los Angeles of Anaheim up above, Mexico down below, and a local rather than regional television deal, I don't expect that to change any time soon, especially not in time for opening day. If I was still insecure, I'd say something right here about the kind of Angeleno cultural imperialism that had Vin Scully on basic cable in San Diego during my childhood, but I'm not, so I won't.

Nevertheless, the Padres will never be able to spend with the Giants and Dodgers, so they're forced to compete creatively.¹ For instance, they saved money on last year's bullpen by re-signing Doug Brocail, a year removed from a 99% blockage of the left anterior descending artery,² for half of his 2006 salary. Glendon Rusch, after losing the end of his 2006 season and his entire 2007 season to a pulmonary embolism, will more than likely start this season in the Padres' pen after signing a minor league contract in December. But the most significant post-injury bargain contract in the organization belongs to native San Diegan Mark Prior, who, if he ever heals, will find himself at the back end of a rotation that should be functionally similar to last year's edition. That is, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and then two other guys.³

Trevor Hoffman remains the face of the bullpen and will accordingly face early season scrutiny. I don't like to tell family business in public, but based on the back-to-back blown saves that ended last season, a lot of us think hell's bells may have tolled, or something to that effect. The thing is, Hoffman blowing a save in Colorado⁴ doesn't really indicate very much. He's struggled there throughout his career, with a lifetime ERA in the City of God('s Team) that tops six. He may be done or he may have been following a trend. I don't know, and I won't be committing to anything here. I will say, though, that even though he's already highly specialized, even for a specialist,⁵ I wouldn't be opposed to seeing his role shift over the course of the season, with Heath Bell seeing more save opportunities, especially on the road.

The infield doesn't hold many surprises, but the outfield may be adventurous. Josh Bard and Michael Barrett will be back behind the plate, and both will continue to share blame with the pitching staff when the rest of the league steals at will. Adrian Gonzales worked out and talked hitting with Tony Gwynn this offseason and I know it's a lot to ask, but I'm hoping things work out the way they did when Gwynn had a similar conversation with former Padre Ted Williams.⁶ Tad Iguchi was brought in as a short term placeholder to keep second base company until Matt Antonelli is ready. Khalil Greene, who has more (batting) stances than Shaolin kung fu,⁷ will be back (after signing an arbitration-avoiding two year extension this offseason) roaming the earth between 3rd and 2nd. He will continue to have a mild case of Dave Kingman. Kevin Kouzmanoff was sub-Mendozal early last year, but rebounded to have a solid rookie season, offensively at least.

Erstwhile third baseman of the future Chase Headley⁸ is now the left fielder of the very near future. That means Jody Gerut is the likely opening day left fielder (as long as Scott Hairston is otherwise occupied) while Headley continues his on-the-job training in AAA Portland. This, according to the Padres, will allow him to experience playing in conditions in left—at night, on wet fields, etc.—that weren't available in the Cactus League. A side effect of this is that he won't be learning a new position and facing live major league pitching for the first time in a park that depresses all offensive stats (except for triples ) during the part of the season that it is at its most depressive.

Speaking of things that depress, the Jim Edmonds is the Padres' new center fielder. I read somewhere that he spent the offseason training with SWAT, presumably to give him something to do during his stretches on the disabled list. With Edmonds still sidelined with a calf issue, Scott Hairston is the probable opening day center fielder. Brian Giles is back in right and hoping to show that injuries more than age were the root cause of his decrease in production a year ago.

I think this team is too arm strong not to compete for the NL West again this year. I also think it unlikely that they'll do much more than that. 88-74.

__________________
1. The Diamondbacks and Rockies, under similar payroll constraints do something creative as well. They develop young talent.
2. I'll never doubt Kevin Towers' ability to put a pen together. I just think you have to be either some kind of low or some kind of saint to re-sign Doug Brocail to a 50% pay cut the year after he has two angioplasties.
3. Randy Wolf and (probably) Justin Germano to start the season.
4. I'm pretending the blown save in Milwaukee didn't happen.
5. He's pitched more than 60 innings in a season only three times this decade and over 65 only once.
6. It's true. Look it up.
7.He also talks a little bit like Kwai Chang Caine.
8. If you've been paying attention, you may have noticed that, other than Khalil Greene, the Padres haven't really developed any position players since the days of Benito Santiago and the Alomar brothers. I guess Derrek Lee counts and Josh Barfield counted for a year and then had his name redacted from the list. Former Padre second base prospect Pedro de los Santos once developed, overnight, into an outfielder named Freddy Guzman who was two and a half years older than de los Santos. To the best of my knowledge, Headley (when he's called up) and then Antonelli will be the first position players drafted by the Padres to make the big club since Sandy Alderson took over as team CEO and Grady Fuson took over scouting and development a few years ago.

J. Neff is a temporarily displaced San Diegan whose Padre fandom defies words. So here's a picture of his shoes, instead:

Know Thy Enemy: San Francisco Giants

Today on Me and Pedro, we rip through much of the NL West, previewing four of the five teams. We begin at the bottom, with the San Francisco Giants. We are pleased to be joined today by Andrew Patterson, about whom it can be said without any hyperbole, he is the best baseball player of all our Know Thy Enemy contributors. Sorry, Posnanski.

The “Sleeping” Giants

For the past 15 years, Barry Bonds has been the face of the San Francisco Giants. Barry Lamar Bonds signed as a free agent with the Giants in December of 1992. During that time, the Giants finished 2nd or better 10 times. The 103 win – 2nd place ’93 Giants sparked MLB to create the Wild Card. Life was good!

The best of the 15 years, however, had to be the 2002 Season. On Opening Day 2002, I was sitting in my dorm room watching the Giants face the Dodgers on the internet. I spent 3 hours watching play by play and pouring my heart into every pitch. Ben (Blog Editor) walked by the door during this time and said to me, “You realize the season is 162 games and you can’t stay this intense the entire year.” Although true, I looked at him and said, “Of course I can.” That year ended in a World Series appearance and if not for a jinx by a roommate, a World Championship for my beloved team (I will never forget, Mike).

Over the last ten years, Brian Sabean has traded most of his young, raw resources for old, “refined” veterans to mix and “deal with” Barry’s antics. These trades have depleted the farm system and left the Giants a muddle of young and old “talent”. Maybe the most perplexing of the trades was our one year stab at A.J. Pierzynski. Sabean felt A.J. was going to be such a vital part of our 2004 team, he traded Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. Nathan has saved 160 games for the Twins with an ERA below 2.00 while Francisco Liriano takes over as the Twins “Ace” for the departed Johan Santana.

But Barry is gone, the circus is gone and well, the winning is GONE!!! The Giants are sleeping, literally. I would be happy if they won 70 games this year and even that might be a stretch by 10 or more games.

This offense could possibly be the worst offense in MLB. Last year, the Giants finished 15th in the National League in runs scored and Barry led the Giants in runs, HRs, OBP,SLG and 2nd in AVG. The Giants will be forced to steal more bases and play “small ball” due to their lack of power. Last year, they finished fourth in the NL in stolen bases and have “decent” speed in Randy Winn and, yes Boston fans, Dave Roberts. The Giants also signed an All-Star centerfield, who plays the game hard and fearless in Aaron Rowand. Although I don’t think he is an ideal Off-Season acquisition for this team, he will be a quality asset in the next few years; teaching the young kids how to play the game “right.”

The Giants will not score a lot of runs and hopefully the front of the rotation can keep this team in some ball games. Barry Zito will get the ball Opening Day against the Dodgers, but young, hard throwing righties Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum will probably be the bright spots on this team. Noah Lowry, the scheduled third starter should return from spring forearm surgery by mid to later April. The bullpen will be solid for this team, but would not be a strong point for a contender.

Andrew is a native of Las Vegas and one of the world's biggest Barry Bonds fans. He was a standout at the best high school baseball program in the fine state of Nevada. Andrew attended the 2002 World Series and returned to his college apartment with a war chest of Thunder Sticks that became the source of wonderful amusement. Until the aforementioned jinx, at which point they became tchotchke non grata.

Know Thy Enemy: Seattle Mariners

"Know Thy Enemy: Seattle Mariners" is twelfth in a twenty-eight part series of season previews. Today Matthew Carruth is kind enough to share with us his thoughts on Seattle's 2008 season.




STARTING ROTATION
Erik Bedard
Felix Hernandez
Carlos Silva
Jarrod Washburn
Miguel Batista

The Mariners upgraded their rotation more than any other team in baseball this winter and it's an area they were in dire need to. Ditching the combined 6.85 runs allowed by Horacio Ramirez, Jeff Weaver, Cha Seung Baek and Ryan Feierabend over 367.7 innings with the projected totals for Silva and Bedard result in well over 100 less runs allowed. 100! All told, if Felix and Bedard remain relatively healthy atop, the rotation should be the Mariners biggest asset. Jarrod Washburn scares me, however, with his collapse potential.


BULLPEN
J.J. Putz
Sean Green
Eric O'Flaherty

The rest of the pen is currently unknown, a choice of three to four people between Ryan Rowland-Smith, Arthur Rhodes, Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, R.A. Dickey and Cha Seung Baek. It doesn't really matter as all of these, chosen or not, will be riding the AAA-MLB express back and forth as they're mostly interchangable. Don't let that confuse you into thinking they're mediocre though, it's an above average unit overall with the potential to be one of the game's best although it is shaping up to be a step back from 2007.


HITTERS
C Kenji Johjima
1B Richie Sexson
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesy Betancourt
3B Adrian Beltre
LF Raul Ibanez
CF Ichiro Suzuki
RF Brad Wilkerson
DH Jose Vidro

Many of the projection systems out there have the Mariners at or below .500 because of this right here. The projected runs scored for the Mariners usually hovers just over 700 runs. Given that Jose Guillen is the only loss and that the team couldn't possibly get less production from the right side of the infield in 2008 than they got in 2007, it seems unlikely for the team to collapse from 794 runs scored all the way down to 714 or so. This is the main contention between people that are bullish on Seattle's chances and those that are not.


OVERALL
The most important thing to know about the Mariners was that they were not an 88-win talented team in 2007. The second most important thing to know is that they were not a 79-win talented team either, as Pythag suggests they are. For as much good luck as they had with their run profile turning into extra wins, they also had some mitigating bad luck with their defense (and yes, you can have bad luck with your defense). All in all, Seattle was roughly an 83-win talented team in 2007. Is the 2008 team a better version? Tough to say. It's loads better in the rotation, but worse at the plate while the bullpen could go either way depending on the health of some key cogs. Overall, I would say they are better.

"So what," many people say, "if they're only a few games better than .500. The Angels won 94 games last year!" Well, that's the third most important thing to note about the Mariners. Their direct competition, the Angels, were not really a 94-win talented team in 2007, they weren't even the 90-win talented team Pythag pegged them for. Instead, according to BaseRuns and other peripheral-based measures of team quality, the 2007 Angels were actually somewhere around a 87-win talented team and to put it bluntly, they didn't get any better over the winter and now face 15-20* missing starts from their version of Bedard-Felix in Lackey-Escobar.

Matthew is a lifelong baseball, Seattle in particular, fan. His dad took him to his first big league game when he was 5 and by the time he was 6 he had the entire team's roster memorized and would score games at night listening to Dave Niehaus over the radio. By 8, he was playing fantasy baseball via snail mail with The Sporting News and compiling spreadsheets (no, really) to help determine how to maximize his player budget. He's since gone on to turn that drive into degrees in computer science and statistics and now regularly delves into baseball statistics. He helps write and edit for The Hardball Times and spends way too much time at Lookout Landing.

*This number is now significantly larger. Since the writing of this preview we have learned that Kelvim Escobar is likely to miss the entire 2008 season.

Know Thy Enemy: Chicago White Sox

Now that we've re-entered the pre-season, it's time to jump back into the Know Thy Enemy series. Today Devan Gonyea is kind enough to stop by and offer his thoughts on the 2008 Chicago White Sox.

The goal for the White Sox this year is to simply be "in the race" until the bitter end. I don't think there's a single person in the organization that believes they are better than the Indians or Tigers (except Kenny Williams, who knows the Tigers are inferior), nor should there be after the utter disaster that was 2007. Instead of thinking about playoffs right off the bat, the Sox need to worry about staying afloat through May (I gasped when I first looked at that month on the schedule). There is talent and experience and youth on both sides of the ball, which at times should be special to watch this season. However, glaring weaknesses such as the bullpen and bottom end of the rotation could possibly take center stage and ruin any positives. The White Sox will have to hope that some guys magically got better over the offseason in order to entertain hopes of playoffs this year.

THE LINEUP

Could potentially be top five in the Majors material. Jesus, they are going to mash a lot of home runs. The biggest question mark will be unproven Jerry Owens, the likely leadoff hitter. The lineup will look something like this most of the season, although Ozzie will likely shake things up from time to time:

1- Jerry Owens OF
2- Orlando Cabrera SS
3- Jim Thome DH
4- Paul Konerko 1B
5- Jermaine Dye RF
6- Nick Swisher OF
7- A.J. Pierzynski C
8- Josh Fields 3B (given a Crede trade)
9- Alexei Ramirez/Juan Uribe 2B

Bench: Pablo Ozuna (utility), Toby Hall C, Brian Anderson OF, Alexei Ramirez/Juan Uribe SS/2B

I'm not an incredibly optimistic person, but I can't help but get excited about this lineup possibly covering up a bad start or blown lead here and there (because believe me, there will be bad starts and blown leads. It is written in stone). Konerko and Dye are better hitters than they showed in 07, and will strive to return to .300/35/100 form. I will not be a fan of the Swisher trade until he gets some serious results. Power numbers won't be demanded but he'll get them anyway (I'd prefer a higher average). Josh Fields is going to struggle filling Crede's glove at the hot corner, but his bat is electric—when he makes contact. A.J. will be A.J., which means being a .250 hitter while picking certain spots to be clutch. The 2nd base job will no doubt be the shiftiest and most competitive throughout the season, with Cuban newcomer Alexei Ramirez and Juan Uribe getting a shot. Any kind of offensive production from this spot will be an unexpected treat. Uribe has actually played 2nd before and would absolutely, without a doubt be the steadiest on defense.

THE ROTATION

Shall be:

1- Mark Buehrle LHP
2- Javier Vazquez RHP
3- Jose Contreras RHP
4- John Danks LHP
5- Gavin Floyd RHP

This is not going to be one of the best rotations in baseball. I'm confident that Buehrle and Vazquez can have 15-18 win seasons, but the rest of the guys are question marks. The ageless Contreras will be depended on more than ever with no Garland to eat six or seven innings every start. We all saw his peak in 2005, but also know the horrors he's capable of (2007). I think by now Don Cooper has taught him everything he knows, so it's up to Contreras alone to throw strikes this season. Perhaps the measure of the Sox's success this year will be equal to Contreras's. The two X factors at the bottom of the rotation are expected to be better, but it'd be silly to expect winning records and sub 4.50 ERAs. The offense knows they will have to bring it every fourth and fifth day.

THE BULLPEN

Was dreadful last season. So bad that it was funny for awhile, then got sad again. The Sox nabbed Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel in the offseason, a couple of vets that may or may not be dependable in a hitter's park against AL lineups. Linebrink is switching leagues and will be in a learning process the entire season. Dotel has been steady in the past but will have to prove his health and consistency again. These two will log the most innings by season's end, followed by lefty Thornton. Just give Jenks's sweaty ass a chance, guys. The patchwork pen will consist of:

Scott Linebrink RHP, Octavio Dotel RHP, Bobby Jenks (CL) RHP, Matt Thornton LHP, Boone Logan LHP, Mike MacDougal RHP, Ehren Wasserman OR Nick Masset RHP.

This team could win anywhere from 80 to 90 games, depending on how optimistic you are and what happens at 3rd base. Writing this, I chose to give Fields the benefit of the doubt even though it looks like Crede isn't going anywhere anytime soon and will actually start. It's tough to say the pressure will be off ala 2005 just because nobody expects anything better than third. The moves Williams made seem to demand instant improvement and wins in 2008.

Devan assumes he is the only White Sox fan in Wisconsin. When he turned 18 in 2005, he celebrated the World Series and his birthday with a tattoo of the Sox logo. The Big Hurt drew him in as a kid and he considers Hawk Harrelson one of the 5 best people to ever live.

Know Thy Enemy: Detroit Tigers

Ah the Detroit Tigers. Get to know these chaps well, Sox fans. A seven-game series could be in the cards for October. For our tenth installment of Know Thy Enemy we turn to a dear friend of the blog, Imran Tahir.

After concluding a fast-paced, exciting off-season replete with significant personnel moves, the Detroit Tigers head into the 2008 campaign amidst heightened expectations, even given where they've finished the last two years. Manager Jim Leyland will be the first to tell you that, despite his love for teaching young kids, he doesn't have many years left in the game in his current role. Accordingly, the window of opportunity for the Tigers to return to (and win) the World Series with the old man "captaining the ship" is likely 3 years at most. This fact is further underscored by the many player contracts due to expire at the close of the 2009 season (including 2B Placido Polanco, 3B Miguel Cabrera, DH Gary Sheffield, and RF Magglio Ordonez).

Without a doubt, the Tigers' greatest asset this season will be their eye-popping lineup, one which should produce video game-like offensive statistics (including a very real chance to crack the 1,000 Runs Scored mark). The Tigers have already had their fair share of 10+ run ballgames over the past two seasons, and this trend should only increase in '08. There isn't a single “easy out” in the lineup 1 through 9, and the Tigers' balance from top to bottom (speedy, on-base guys at the top, powerful run-producers in the middle, and good contact hitters towards the bottom) is the envy of more than a few GM's around the Majors. Assuming good health, the Tigers' offense alone should keep them in contention throughout this upcoming season.

As to pitching, there is potential on the Tigers' staff, but also some question marks. The starting rotation looks solid, featuring an interesting mix of experienced "old hands" (Kenny Rogers), crafty innings-eaters (Nate Robertson), and young, power-hurlers (Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis). Rogers' health, along with Robertson's and Bonderman's consistency will be issues to keep an eye on throughout 2008, but overall, the Tigers should do fine in the way of quality starts more often than not.

The Bullpen is more of a concern. Closer Todd Jones, while still effective, is at the twilight of his career, and the set-up men (Rodney, Bautista, Bazardo) remain rather erratic, even while possessing good strikeout potential. Add to this the rather unfortunate off-season shoulder injury to young flame-thrower Joel Zumaya, and you have a Bullpen that is an area which will likely have to be addressed at the trading deadline in July.

The Detroit Tigers put themselves back "on the map" with an AL Pennant in 2006. A sub-par second-half of the season in 2007 removed them from playoff contention. Nevertheless, the Tigers remain a team to keep a close eye on in 2008. To be sure, there are about 10-12 MLB teams that enter this season with a realistic shot at reaching the World Series. Amongst them, there are 5 teams that have a really, really good chance at WINNING the World Series. The '08 Detroit Tigers are one such team.

2008 Detroit Tigers:

Batting:
1) Curtis Granderson (CF)
2) Placido Polanco (2B)
3) Gary Sheffield (DH)
4) Magglio Ordonez (RF)
5) Miguel Cabrera (3B)
6) Carlos Guillen (1B)
7) Edgar Renteria (SS)
8) Jacque Jones (LF)
9) Ivan Rodriguez (C)

Bench: Marcus Thames (OF/1B), Brandon Inge (INF), Ramon Santiago (INF), *Vance Wilson (C)

Pitching:
1) Kenny Rogers (L)
2) Justin Verlander (R)
3) Dontrelle Willis (L)
4) Jeremy Bonderman (R)
5) Nate Robertson (L)

Bullpen: Todd Jones, Fernando Rodney, Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo, *Joel Zumaya (summer), Bobby Seay, Zach Miner, amongst others.

*Indicates that player will start the season on the DL.

Imran has been a diehard Tigers fan since he began following baseball in 1993, and is looking for a repeat of the magical run of 2006. He is an NFL Draft fanatic, and if not for law school obligations his blog would be updated with great frequency.

Know Thy Enemy: Florida Marlins

Unable to locate a Florida Marlins fan who is not currently employed by the club, we offer our first Know Thy Enemy penned by an enemy of the enemy.

Hanley Ramirez is good.

The 2008 Florida Marlins are not.

With that out of the way, I'd like to take a look at one of the most unique franchises in sports. No other organization in any of the 3.37 major sports (the NHL does not count for a whole number until the Stanley Cup Finals are free of teams named after Disney movies) has had an existence involving such a self-inflicted roller coaster of talent. From a collection of castoffs like Charlie Hough and Orestes Destrade to the 1997 world champions with a collection of mercenaries, back to cellar dwellers, then back to the 2003 title, the Fish have been sabotaged by bad owners and saved by great GMs—occasionally at the same time. And they've won more titles in the past dozen years than the rest of the NL East combined—and more than the Phillies have won in their entire 120+ year existence.

Since their existence, the Marlins have played their games in a football stadium. As part of the effort to convince voters to approve a taxpayer-funded new stadium, then-owner Wayne Huizenga gambled that a high-priced team of stars would bring success, draw fans, and get the deal passed. As Meat Loaf once warbled, two out of three ain't bad. The 1997 Marlins won 92 games and the World Series in only their 5th year of existence, but it wasn't enough to sucker the fans into giving a billionaire millions of dollars. With the stadium deal dead, Huizenga claimed that the successful team lost him tons of money, and held the fire sale to end all fire sales.

Here's where it gets good.

General Manager Dave Dombrowski (and Larry Beinfest, who took over in 2002) was commanded to get rid of all of the high priced talent. Every GM in the league knew this, and knew they could lowball him on their offers because he couldn't keep his players. He dumped them all for prospects, and the 1998 Marlins lost 108 games, yet 5 years later, they were hoisting the trophy again.

WHAT THE HELL DID THEY DO?!?!?!

a) turned Charles Johnson, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, and Manuel Barrios into Juan Pierre and Mike Lowell
b) turned Mark Kotsay into Dontrelle Willis
c) turned Al Leiter into AJ Burnett
d) turned Edgar Renteria into Braden Looper
e) turned Cliff Floyd into Carl Pavano (before he sucked)
f) turned Kevin Brown into Derrek Lee
g) turned an injured Matt Mantei into Brad Penny
h) used the first round draft pick (#2 overall) they got from sucking to draft Josh Beckett

That's five starting pitchers, their closer, and three of their biggest bats from their 2003 title team that came from the dismantling of the 1997 squad. Add another seven guys on the bench, and that's 16 guys on the 2003 25-man roster that came from the fire sale. A second title in six years made Dombrowski seem like a genius, despite having moved to Detroit (where he brought them from 119 losses to the World Series in under five years).

After the 2003 title, another fire sale was mandated by the new owner, the Despicable Jeff Loria, who will hereafter be referred to as "the Despicable Jeff Loria." After running the Montreal Expos into the ground with his penny pinching and refusal to give fair value to his young stars, the Despicable Jeff Loria worked out a sweetheart deal where he sold the Expos to MLB, who eventually moved them to Washington, and bought the Fish from John Henry, who then bought the Red Sox. Following the '03 title, the Despicable Jeff Loria decided that if he wasn't going to get his new stadium, he'd sell off the players.

This time around, Beinfest has picked up several promising young players, including Hanley Ramirez, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Mitre, and lots of other guys who haven�t started shaving yet.

Which brings us full circle, back to the 2008 version of the Marlins—not quite as bad as the 98-01 teams, but not as promising as the 96 or 02 squads either.

As previously stated, Hanley Ramirez is very, very good. Dan Uggla is a solid young player who hit 30 home runs last year, while hitting .245. Quick, make a list of second basemen who have successfully tried to imitate Pete Incaviglia. Mike Jacobs is a first baseman with one of the most perfect swings you've ever laid your eyes on. If healthy, he can hit 30-35 homers this year. Maybin, Jeremy Hermida, and Josh Willingham make for a powerful young outfield that will be solid for years to come, but probably not this year. Defensively�... let's be nice and just say that the Marlins will likely give up more runs than they score.

On the mound, they have young hopefuls in Miller, Sanchez, Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, and the cast of Major League 3: Back in the Minors.

The bottom line for the Fish is that by the time their (finally approved) new stadium opens in 2011, several of the players on their 2008 rosters may be playing at an all-star level. Whether they are doing that in Miami or someplace else remains to be seen, though if the Despicable Jeff Loria is still running the team, my magic 8-ball points to no. As far as 2008 is concerned, expect them to lose often, but get better as the year goes on.

Prediction: 70-92, 4th place

Alan Lewis is a Mets fan who would rather write an 800 word preview of a second-division team that he doesn't care about than do the job that he receives a salary for.

Know Thy Enemy: Houston Rockets Astros

This is the latest, longest and most colorful installment of our Know Thy Enemy series. Your author is Paul Menchaca of Last Exit Magazine.

As I write this, my Houston Rockets have won a remarkable 18 games in a row. That’s good for the fourth best streak in NBA history. They really are a fantastic team to watch too: Fluid, unselfish, a confident swagger and for roughly a month and one week now, absolutely dominant. This helps me forget about the fact that spring training is in full swing, Opening Day is fast approaching and my Houston Astros are going to suck.

For fans of the 27 Major League Baseball teams not located in either New York or Boston, the best way to determine how good your team is going to be is to look at the probable Opening Day starting lineup and figure out how many players either the Red Sox (a good sign) or the Yankees (a bad sign) would poach from it. I’m leaving the Mets out of the discussion because, for one, they already snagged the Bentley of available players in the offseason by trading for Johan Santana. But also, the Mets have almost always been the middle child in the Boston and New York stratosphere; sure they might be a part of the family you love to hate, but you always just sort of forget that they’re there. (Except, mind you, for that one glorious, despicable championship team of 1986. More on that later.)

Now when looking at the players Boston or New York will theoretically one day take from your team’s lineup, why should you separate the Red Sox (a good sign) and the Yankees (a bad sign)? Sure they are both awash in cash, have adoring, obnoxious fans and almost always play meaningful games into September. But even though the haters refuse to see any difference between the two franchises—like Duke and North Carolina, Boston and New York are bitter ESPN Conference rivals—there is an important fact that must be acknowledged: Since the turn of the 21st century the Red Sox have simply proven superior at building a better team. While the Sox have gone out and acquired prodigiously talented players like Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett (all of whom, by the way, deliver in big games), the Yankees have signed, well, Jason Giambi. And a broken-down Randy Johnson. And, of course, Alex Rodriguez, who is somehow both the best player in baseball and deemed such a colossal failure that his hometown fans loathe him.

With this recent history serving as our measure: If the Sox are interested in one of your team’s players it probably means he’s loaded with talent and has a knack for delivering when it matters; or if your team has never played in a game that matters, he just exudes a steel confidence that seems unbreakable in any situation. If the Yankees are interested in one of your players there’s a chance it means he is overrated (Giambi), washed up (Johnson) or seriously flawed (A-Rod).

When I look at the probable starting lineup for the Astros this season, well, we’re fucked. Forget New York or Boston, even the Royals would take a pass on most of these players. When the guy signed by your favorite baseball team in the offseason for his World Series experience happens to be Kaz Matsui, you better be a basketball fan or have another baseball team to root for. (Full disclosure: I’ve liked the Red Sox since 1986.) I mean seriously…OK wait, full disclosure: I’ve liked the Red Sox since 1986 because Roger Clemens was their star pitcher at the time. Sigh.

So Craig Biggio—an almost certain Hall of Famer and arguably the most beloved pro athlete ever to play in Houston—retires and your team replaces him with Kaz Matsui. I could end this season preview right here and my point will have been made. But because sports fandom will always be more about suffering than jubilation, let me continue. Let’s start by listing off the probable starting pitchers by last name only and think about how many you can confidently say you know: Oswalt, Rodriguez, Backe, Williams and Sampson. Be honest: One. One fucking starting pitcher that any fan outside of Houston or Peter Gammons could actually recognize on a last name-only basis. It seems like just yesterday we were poaching big-name pitchers with baffling career trajectories away from the Yankees.

To be sure, Roy Oswalt is one motherfucker of a power pitcher who, OK, played horribly in his only World Series appearance in 2005. But in his seven-year pro career the 30-year-old has a 3.66 career postseason ERA, a 3.07 career regular season ERA and he has that same death stare that every dominant pitcher has on the mound. He would be perfect for the Red Sox. (Editor's note: Thanks! We'll take him)

First baseman Lance “Fat Elvis” Berkman is the other lock for hypothetical Boston glory. He’s a power switch hitter who hit 34 home runs and drove in 102 RBI last season. He has also had seasons of 45 and 136, 30 and 106, 42 and 128 and 34 and 126. He also happens to be a career .300 hitter. Berkman would absolutely murder Fenway Park the same way he murders the former Enron Field.

After that it gets dicey. There’s Carlos Lee, a power hitter with a respectable .288 career batting average who puts up pre-steroid era home run numbers, meaning he tied a career best with 32 last season. While there is something strangely, depressingly noble and nostalgia-inducing about that number, it doesn’t erase the fact that the Astros probably overpaid when they signed Lee as a free agent in 2006 for $100 million over six years. Still, he actually had a really good season last year, made the All Star team and seems to be a bit of a fan favorite. So what the hell, turn him over to the Fenway faithful. (I realize that by now 99% of baseball fans outside of Boston want to torture and kill me, but this is too much fun to stop.)

Which brings us to Miguel Tejada, a player who seems so perfect for the Yankees it’s almost impossible not to imagine him in pinstripes. The Astros’ “prize” acquisition this year, Tejada was not only once a teammate of free agent bust Jason Giambi’s in Oakland, was not only named in the Mitchell Report on steroids, but he’s a former MVP who was probably never as good as he appeared to be and whose best years are behind him. The Bronx just isn’t the Bronx anymore without dysfunctional comedy gold like this.

And then there’s everyone else. Hunter Pence is a promising young outfielder that could someday be a star, but it’s still too early to know whether he will one day be good enough to play for the Yankees or Red Sox. The rest of the projected starting lineup is made up of a bunch of names like Wigginton and Bourn and Towles and the aforementioned Matsui.

So where does that leave me, a lifelong fan who fondly remembers the thrilling sound of Nolan Ryan’s blistering fastballs hitting the catcher’s mitt while watching games at the legendary, uh, Astrodome? Well, pining for the old days of course.

Which brings me to my final two points. The first one is this: While everyone will remember the 1986 baseball season as the year of Buckner and curses and the Amazing Mets, the Houston Astros were not only a playoff team, but a legitimate threat to win the World Series. The ‘Stros took the Mets to six games in the National League Championship Series, losing that last one in a gut-wrenching, heartbreaking 16-inning masterpiece of a contest at the Dome. The Mets that year were a beautiful, drunken, coke-addled, mess of a ball club that could possibly be the last truly awesome old school team in all of sports. They had players that were easy for everyone outside of Queens to despise: Keith Hernandez, Doc Gooden, Gary Carter, Lenny Dykstra, and Daryl Strawberry. They were really fucking good too, going 108-54 that year. And the Astros could have beaten them.

Waiting in the wings to pitch in Game 7 for Houston was Mike Scott, whose mastery of the split-finger fastball made him damn near unhittable at that point. Besides leading the league in strikeouts that year, posting a 2.22 ERA and eventually winning the Cy Young award, he also threw a no-hitter against the San Francisco Giants to clinch the National League West in those pre-Wild Card days. Talk to Mets fans and even some of the former players, no one wanted to face Scott in that final game. Sure it wasn’t through-the-legs-of-Buckner, but it was nonetheless a bitter pill to swallow for a 10-year-old fan that also made the dubious decision to jump on the Red Sox bandwagon that year.

My second point is this: Those infamous, Summer-of-Love rainbow jerseys the Astros used to wear? They were awesome. There is no debate here. Those jerseys were so tough that even the hip-hop community has embraced them. In fact, they were so nice that they were coined with two amazing names: “Rainbow Guts” and “Tequila Sunrise”. If I played fantasy baseball, Rainbow Guts would forever be my team name.

Why do I bring up these final two points? Because it allows me to link to this sweet video of a drunken Charlie Kerfeld in his Rainbow Guts uniform celebrating Mike Scott’s division-clinching no-hitter.

But also, it’s much better than worrying about how some guy named Sampson is going to fare when he takes the mound every fifth day for the Astros this season.

Paul Menchaca is the proud new owner of www.rainbowguts.com. He loves words in huge bunches and earns money by writing about the financial misery of others. More importantly, he co-edits an online magazine called Last Exit. He lives in Brooklyn where he often dreams of Texas.